Clyde Edwards-Helaire Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 11:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-162/+126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +124 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to accumulate 3.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 15.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 8.4.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's receiving skills have been refined this year, notching 3.2 yards per game compared to a mere 1.6 last year.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 86.4% to 92.9%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.