Clyde Edwards-Helaire Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (45.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (59.5%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.