C.J. Uzomah Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

C.J. Uzomah

TE · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

C.J. Uzomah Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+433/-984).

Key Factors

Favors Over

C.J. Uzomah's 23.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 75th percentile for tight ends.
C.J. Uzomah has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching an impressive 79.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 85th percentile.
C.J. Uzomah ranks in the 77th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.25 per game.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.47 per game since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (67.6%).
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.