C.J. Stroud TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

C.J. Stroud TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Texans as the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Texans to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.5% red zone pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this week's game, C.J. Stroud is expected by the projections to average the 5th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.5.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense last year: 7th-fewest in football.
Last year, the tough Colts defense has given up a puny 1.24 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

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