C.J. Stroud TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offense as the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
In registering a staggering 39.1 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud places among the top QBs in football (92nd percentile) for this stat.
The Falcons defense has been gouged for the 9th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.50 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.7% red zone pass rate.
With a feeble 60.7% Adjusted Completion% (21st percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates among the worst precision passers in football.
The Falcons safeties rank as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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