C.J. Stroud TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Steelers defense has allowed the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.65 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The model projects the Texans to be the 4th-least pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the league.
The Texans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season (65.3%).

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