C.J. Stroud TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

C.J. Stroud TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 132.2 plays on offense run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to attempt 36.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
With a lackluster 62.4% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud has been among the least on-target passers in football.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's CB corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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