C.J. Stroud TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs this week, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal approach.
In logging a whopping 36.7 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud places among the top quarterbacks in the league (76th percentile) in this regard.
C.J. Stroud has been among the best touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 1.75 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the league.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive blueprint to tilt 1.3% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 4th-least pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (52.1% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Houston Texans.
The projections expect the Texans to run the 9th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
With a weak 61.4% Adjusted Completion% (16th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the least on-target quarterbacks in the league.

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