C.J. Stroud TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 4:31 PM EST

Analysis

C.J. Stroud TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -280 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 9th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.83 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season (73.9%).

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the 5th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.18 per game since the start of last season.

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