C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Texans to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.

Favors Under

The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.5% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
C.J. Stroud's running effectiveness (4.45 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (12th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Jacksonville's group of DEs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

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