C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Houston O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year in run-blocking.
C.J. Stroud's ground effectiveness (3.58 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (19th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).
C.J. Stroud comes in as one of the bottom QBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging just 0.53 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 6th percentile.

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