C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects C.J. Stroud to garner 5.1 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects C.J. Stroud to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (16.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the best group of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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