C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive blueprint to tilt 1.3% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 9th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.4% run rate.
This year, the strong Bengals run defense has allowed a meager 4.91 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's run game: the 28th-lowest rate in football.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Cincinnati's LB corps has been very bad this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs this week, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Texans to run the 9th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
In this game, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by the predictive model to earn the 5th-fewest rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 2.8.
The Texans O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.
C.J. Stroud's rushing effectiveness (3.58 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (13th percentile when it comes to QBs).

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