C.J. Stroud Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 247.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
With an impressive total of 246.0 adjusted passing yards per game (76th percentile), C.J. Stroud places among the best passers in the NFL this year.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (256.0 per game) versus the Buccaneers defense this year.

Favors Under

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
C.J. Stroud is positioned as one of the least accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a 59.9% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 10th percentile.

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