C.J. Stroud Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 222.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 224.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
The leading projections forecast C.J. Stroud to throw 36.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-most among all QBs.
C.J. Stroud has been among the leading quarterbacks in football this year, averaging an outstanding 274.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Texans.
With a lackluster 60.3% Adjusted Completion% (12th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates among the least accurate passers in football.
This year, the fierce New Orleans Saints defense has given up a paltry 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, surrendering 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in football.

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