C.J. Stroud Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 202.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 218.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 202.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in football vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.75 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-most in football.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects C.J. Stroud to attempt 33.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

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