C.J. Stroud Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Interceptions

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In throwing a lowly 0.13 interceptions per game this year, C.J. Stroud places among the top quarterbacks in football (89th percentile).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have intercepted 1.12 throws per game this year, ranking as the 7th-best defense in the NFL by this stat.

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