C.J. Stroud Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Carries

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Houston Texans offensive scheme to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Right now, the 9th-most run-oriented offense in football (41.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Texans.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have 132.0 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league last year at blocking for rushers.

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