Chuba Hubbard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Chuba Hubbard

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:21 AM EST

Analysis

Chuba Hubbard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Panthers to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.5 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.8 per game) this year.
When talking about air yards, Chuba Hubbard grades out in the lowly 16th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -2.0 per game.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
Chuba Hubbard's 4.9 adjusted yards per target this year conveys an impressive reduction in his receiving talent over last year's 9.3 rate.
Chuba Hubbard's 7.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a significant regression in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 9.9% mark.