Chuba Hubbard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Chuba Hubbard

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Chuba Hubbard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Chuba Hubbard has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among running backs, averaging an impressive 9.30 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 27.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.88 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the NFL.