Chuba Hubbard Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Chuba Hubbard

NFL · Player Props

Chuba Hubbard

RB · Carolina Panthers

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Chuba Hubbard Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-111/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 5th-most plays in football have been run by the Carolina Panthers this year (a staggering 63.6 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect Chuba Hubbard to earn 14.3 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The model projects Chuba Hubbard to be much more involved in his team's ground game in this week's contest (59.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (26.8% in games he has played).
In regards to opening holes for runners (and the influence it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Panthers profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a massive 14-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to run on 38.6% of their plays: the 6th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Panthers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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