Chuba Hubbard Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Chuba Hubbard

NFL · Player Props

Chuba Hubbard

RB · Carolina Panthers

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Chuba Hubbard Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Panthers to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.5 plays per game.
In this contest, Chuba Hubbard is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 89th percentile among running backs with 17.0 rush attempts.
The predictive model expects Chuba Hubbard to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (62.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.4% in games he has played).
As it relates to blocking for rushers (and the ramifications it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers ranks as the 10th-best in football last year.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
The Saints linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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