Chuba Hubbard Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Chuba Hubbard

NFL · Player Props

Chuba Hubbard

RB · Carolina Panthers

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Chuba Hubbard Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 42.1% run rate.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties project as the 26th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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