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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.

The Detroit Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.6 per game) this year.

The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Christian Watson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 55.0% to 66.1%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Christian Watson has gone out for fewer passes this season (52.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (77.9%).

Christian Watson's 2.2 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a material decline in his receiving ability over last season's 3.2 rate.

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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