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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans

Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 136.1 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.

The model projects Christian Watson to be a more important option in his team's pass attack in this week's game (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.5% in games he has played).

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Packers profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year.

Christian Watson's 70.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a significant gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 55.0% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3 points.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Christian Watson's 2.1 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a meaningful drop-off in his receiving skills over last year's 3.2 mark.

This year, the fierce Houston Texans defense has surrendered a feeble 57.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the best rate in football.

The Texans cornerbacks grade out as the 10th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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