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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) this year.

The Green Bay O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Christian Watson's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 55.0% to 62.9%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 55.3% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.2 plays per game.

Christian Watson's 40.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 51.4.

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Seattle's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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