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Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-170).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.In this week's contest, Christian Watson is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile among WRs with 6.5 targets.While Christian Watson has accounted for 12.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in Green Bay's offense in this contest at 19.5%.The Green Bay O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.Christian Watson's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 55.0% to 61.8%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.The model projects the Packers as the 11th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Miami's group of CBs has been very good this year, ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL.
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