Christian Watson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Christian Watson

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused team in football (62.8% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
This year, the anemic Broncos pass defense has been gouged for a massive 77.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 2nd-largest rate in football.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Denver's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Packers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.2 plays per game.
Christian Watson's 43.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a a material drop-off in his receiving skills over last year's 65.3% rate.

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