Christian Watson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Christian Watson

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+106/-141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -187 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (60.6%).
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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