Christian Watson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in football (70.2%) to WRs this year (70.2%).
The Tennessee Titans pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.