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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.

The Detroit Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.6 per game) this year.

The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Christian Watson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 55.0% to 66.1%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Christian Watson has gone out for fewer passes this season (52.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (77.9%).

Christian Watson has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (98.0 per game).

Christian Watson's 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates an impressive decline in his receiving proficiency over last season's 44.0 mark.

This year, the stout Lions defense has surrendered the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wideouts: a meager 7.4 yards.

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