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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Packers.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (38.0 per game) this year.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

Christian Watson's 8.1% Target Rate this year represents a meaningful regression in his passing game utilization over last year's 18.4% rate.

After accumulating 98.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Watson has been a disappointment this season, currently sitting at 38.0 per game.

Christian Watson's 32.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season conveys an impressive decline in his receiving skills over last season's 44.0 figure.

With a feeble 2.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (15th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian Watson stands as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in football in the open field.

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