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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) this year.
  • The Green Bay O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Christian Watson's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 55.0% to 62.9%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 55.3% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • The Green Bay Packers have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.2 plays per game.
  • Christian Watson has notched far fewer air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (98.0 per game).
  • Christian Watson's 40.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 51.4.
  • The Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 131.0) to wide receivers this year.

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