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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

In this week's contest, Christian Watson is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile among WRs with 6.5 targets.

While Christian Watson has accounted for 12.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in Green Bay's offense in this contest at 19.5%.

The Green Bay O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Christian Watson's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 55.0% to 61.8%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.

The model projects the Packers as the 11th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Christian Watson has notched far fewer air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (98.0 per game).

The Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 126.0) to WRs this year.

This year, the stout Miami Dolphins defense has yielded the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a mere 8.0 yards.

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