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Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+105/-135).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -135.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.The model projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Packers grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year.Christian Watson's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 55.0% to 62.4%.Christian Watson's pass-catching effectiveness has improved this year, notching 9.08 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 7.41 rate last year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Packers are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.Christian Watson's 54.4% Route% this season illustrates a noteworthy regression in his air attack utilization over last season's 77.9% figure.After accumulating 98.0 air yards per game last year, Christian Watson has been a disappointment this year, now averaging 55.0 per game.This year, the stout Bears defense has yielded a measly 119.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.This year, the strong Bears defense has given up a measly 60.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
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