Christian Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Christian Watson

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Christian Watson to garner 6.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
As it relates to air yards, Christian Watson grades out in the lofty 82nd percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, totaling a remarkable 70.0 per game.
The Vikings defense has conceded the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (174.0) versus WRs this year.
This year, the weak Vikings pass defense has allowed a monstrous 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.0 per game) this year.
Christian Watson's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 65.3% to 46.1%.
Christian Watson's 6.2 adjusted yards per target this season represents a substantial reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 9.3 rate.
Christian Watson rates as one of the bottom WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.49 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 9th percentile.

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