Christian Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Christian Watson

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The projections expect Christian Watson to garner 7.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
As it relates to air yards, Christian Watson ranks in the towering 78th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.0 per game.
The the Packers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: fewest in football.
With a poor 0.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (8th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian Watson rates as one of the top WRs in the game in football in picking up extra yardage.
As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Las Vegas's collection of DEs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

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