Christian Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Christian Watson

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 5:41 PM EST

Analysis

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Packers being a huge -8.5-point underdog in this game.
The projections expect the Packers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
Christian Watson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (76.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (54.9%).
The predictive model expects Christian Watson to accumulate 6.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
Christian Watson's 32.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season shows a noteable reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 43.0 figure.
Christian Watson's 45.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 65.3% mark.
Christian Watson's 6.1 adjusted yards per target this year marks a significant diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 9.3 rate.

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