Christian Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in football (71.2%) versus WRs this year (71.2%).
The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.