Christian Watson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Watson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+344/-668).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +385 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +344.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears defense has yielded the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.28 per game since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Packers are a big 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.