Christian Watson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Christian Watson

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Christian Watson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-277).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +205 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has surrendered the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.9%) versus wide receivers this year (70.9%).
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
The Chicago Bears safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

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