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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-293).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +263 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in football (57.8%) to wide receivers this year (57.8%).

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 5th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.60 per game this year.

The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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