Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to run on 45.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 17.2 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs.
In regards to run-blocking (and the impact it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the 49ers profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.
Christian McCaffrey has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (68.0).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).
Christian McCaffrey's 82.0% snap rate this year indicates a meaningful growth in his offensive usage over last year's 71.5% mark.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 83.0 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

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