Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (+104/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense as the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.28 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 16.9 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more important option in his offense's running game this year (74.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (62.9%).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 63.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (83rd percentile).

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback P.J. Walker in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.