Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 17.6 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has generated 69.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (97th percentile).
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game this week (60.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (75.0% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The Arizona Cardinals defensive tackles project as the 7th-best group of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.