Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 68.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 15.7 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be much less involved in his offense's running game this week (47.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.2% in games he has played).
Christian McCaffrey has been among the weakest RBs in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.61 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 11th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.