Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a big 14.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to garner 17.5 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (50.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.5% in games he has played).
Christian McCaffrey has been among the bottom running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.60 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 14th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.