Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 76.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to garner 21.7 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in run blocking.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 67.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 71.1% of snaps vs just 60.0% last year.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 8th-best collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.