Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers rank as the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 41.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 12.7 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has generated 57.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (79th percentile).
The Miami Dolphins defensive tackles project as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a less important option in his team's run game this week (44.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.3% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.