Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-109/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Christian McCaffrey has grinded out 59.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (80th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-most yards in the NFL (135 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack this week (42.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (59.5% in games he has played).